EURO 2004 from Germany

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OK it's time to start. i will keep this as my thread throughout the euro 2004.
My plays will be as usual if not stated differnetly for 1 unit, big plays for 2 unit.

First i'll post my general idea and outlook for the teams, so you know in which direction i think. it's just the summary of what i have capped. beware these prediction are mainly for group stage as i see this a wide open tournament once we are reaching the elimination rounds.
I'll post my props and futures later today or tomorrow and first matches approx. thursday.
so good luck to all and may germany win (which i dont believe, but you never know)

Group A:
Spain / Portugal:

Both team should go through easily. not sure which team is the better. they both have some kind of home advantage, but to go deep into the tournament they have not a good history..we all know that spain is the secret fav in every WC or EURO but then struggels to produce.
Portugal has IMO only home advantage...they are not porto (which is probably the most disciplined team in europe right now). if it goes down the wire i see them struggeling as always.
Very slight edge to spain and easy group stage for both.

Russia: not as dangerous as we know them from the past, but still the only reasonable longshot for an upset in this group.

Greece: unexperience with an experience german coach. they played a great qualifying, but that'S it..they are happy to be here and will have fun, but not because of winning.
(3rd or 4th place)

Group B:

Frankreich: best team in group technically and with best defense. still believe they are overvalued and dont see them as the super-team, but they will definitely show up and not produce an upset like in WC.

England:

England is england...on the big stage they will NOT produce..they have a great league, but not a great national team. not difference this time.they should go through but it's not a surprice if they would be upset by croatia.

Croatia:

Dangerous..almost the only team which played good and solid friendlies in last two week. there is a TEAM which is always dangerous whith these teams from the balkan.
They have the biggest chance for an upset in group stage IMO in this tournament.

SWISS: Plain awful. enough said.

Group C:

Italy: played solid as always. they are a tournament team as germany. nobody speaks about them at the moment, but they are one of the top 3 teams IMO. Strong in every aspect.

Sweden: Clearly number 2 in this group. Solid on defense, dangerous in offense. they have the body and experience to play with everybody on any day.

Denmark: Simply NOT good..not even dangerous as in the past.

Bulgaria: Even worse

Group D:

Holland: They have a problem. big hype around this team but i think only outside of holland. they have great names, but are struggeling to produce on the big stage in recent years (if they reach the big stage..see worls cup). terrible friendly result and and awful group for them.
Germany is always dangerous to play gor the dutch and against the czech they always loose. they got picked in every qualifier every tournament and always holland comes up short. czech is the reason holland did not travel to WC and had to qualify for this EURO.

Czech: solid team

Germany: Unpredictable: They can beat everybody and can loose to almost everybody..all depend on the first game. if they win beware of what is coming if not sudden end.
DOnt overvalue the loss on sunday to hungria.

Latvia: They had a convincing result in their last qualifier : 2-2 home draw to Azerbaidschan..enough said.

See you all for props and futures
 

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chris -

Thank you for your work in this, and the hockey forum, in the past.

Also, thanks very much for the analysis on the Euro 2004 so far. I find myself agreeing with everything you have written, especially the warning about not putting too much weight on the dreadful German performance against Hungary.

So far, I have seen a couple of props that looks promising - please feel free to comment: Pinnacle has some head-to-head props on who will advance further, and both the Russia v Switzerland and Greece v Switzerland prop have caught my attention.

Either Russia or Greece could be the surprise team coming out of Group A, while I think there is virtually no chance of Switzerland making it out of Group B. At worst, there is a refund, if all three go home after the group stage. At odds of around 1.65 and 1.83, respectively, that seems like a good deal to me. Any thoughts?
 

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yes i agree with swizerland..and i capped especially these head- to- head props..will post them later today.
 

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Head - to - head match ups from pinn:

if both teams go out in same round it's a push.
There are a lot of plays to find and a lot of them would be actually plays on the same prediction of a team. I have choosen the match ups with best value for my opinions (see above).
Basically they are selected on the assumption that one team will make the group stage, the other fails or one team has far better chances to make it and worst thing is a push if both fail:

Russia over Bulgaria @ 2.40
Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 !! 2 units!!
Greece over Bulgaria @ 2.45
Spain over Holland @ 1.82
Greece over Swiss @ 1.83
Croatia over Denmark @ 2.80
Croatia over Bulgaria @ 2.25

If you have question on others feel free to ask

Some more props on Qualifying or Not from Group stage:

Sweden to qualify @ 2.0 !! 2 units!!
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 !! 2 units !!
Holland NOT to qualify @ 3.10

Total goals by FIGO + ZIDANE + BECKHAM + RAUL TOTAL over 6.5 goals @ 1.91 !! 2 units !!
I expect most of these teams to go deep in tournament + most of them shooting penelties for their team and free kicks + they can score anyway on their own...all good factors for an over. really like that.

[This message was edited by chriscol on June 07, 2004 at 05:43 PM.]

[This message was edited by chriscol on June 07, 2004 at 05:45 PM.]
 

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chriscol-

thanks for sharing your opinions.
1036316054.gif


I wonder if I will be able to catch any of these matches in the states.
icon_frown.gif
 

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drunkguy.....i think its $189 for all the games if you have comcast....its perfect for me here in CA....games will be on at 9 and i think 11 45 am so its just perfect....if your on the east coast it sucks
 

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chris -

Bulgaria worry me a little - that whole group worries me. I don't have your confidence in Sweden, so I could see Bulgaria sneaking through, which voids all those picks against them for me.

I really like Croatia over Denmark, as I think that Denmark will go home after 3 matches, while Croatia has a decent chance to go through. The line of Croatia against Greece is ridiculous, I may hit that heavy as well.

I like your reasoning on the 4 players goal total - that may be worth a shot, as we are talking less than 2 goals per player, and one or more of these could get 3 by themselves.

The only thing I have to add is a small play on the Yes for Will a penalty by saved or missed in the group stage - that sounds very reasonable, but it is a pure chance play.
 

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chris- I enjoyed your breakdown of each group. I know you follow the German team pretty closely and I have come to this conclusion. They stink. They won't make it out of their group and it will start when Holland gives them a beating on Tuesday. Oliver Kahn is done. He has no business being on the field. The team is slow and old they they will get trashed in EURO 2004. Yes, I'm still aggrevated by their lay down effort against Hungary on Sunday but this is a real average team. At best.
 

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Sweden: Clearly number 2 in this group. Solid on defense, dangerous in offense. they have the body and experience to play with everybody on any day.

Denmark: Simply NOT good..not even dangerous as in the past.


The only bets I made so far are two tournament bets:
Sweden to win at 40.0 and Denmark at 55.0
Prices not available anymore.
 

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First games: didn t look at totals so far so i might add them later:

Spain - Russia: Spain -0.5,-1 @ 1.92

Croatia - Swiss: Croatia pk, -0.5 @ 1.962

Italy - Denmark: Italy -0.5 @ 1.87 !! 2 units !!

Sweden - Bulgaria: Sweden pk, - 0.5 @ 1.88

2- team parlay: Spain to win @ 1.65 and Czech to win @ 1.4 for a combined 2.31

That'S all for now..still thinking about other games, but try to be selective.
i somewhat have not a good feeling for portugal..could end a draw. it's an opening match and we know these tend to be strange.
 

acw

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Spain - Russia: Spain -0.5,-1 @ 1.92
Croatia - Swiss: Croatia pk, -0.5 @ 1.962
Italy - Denmark: Italy -0.5 @ 1.87 !! 2 units !!
Sweden - Bulgaria: Sweden pk, - 0.5 @ 1.88
2- team parlay: Spain to win @ 1.65 and Czech to win @ 1.4 for a combined 2.31


Not one outsider! That is the way!
 

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you know ive a tendency to go this way and it's proven succesful. but watch out one i capped ther german game
banana.gif
 

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Hi!

Spain – Russia 1 1.70 Bets4all.com

Spain is for me in this match a little banker. They have almost a home-advantage in Portugal and they are motivated after the last disappointing tournaments. Spain have a young, fresh and with a good offense. Russia have defensive problems and I think they are one of the weakest team in the EURO this year. For this price for Spain I have to bet on them. Good Luck! Price better that on betfair!
 
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I dont think Denmark is that bad of a team. Sand & Tommasson up front are pretty good . Midfield with Graveson,Gronkjaer,Jensen not bad.

I think they may actually go through (beat Sweden)
 

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Gronkjaer is out due to the demise of his mom, he hasn't joined the team and he isn't expected to play.
 

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Here are my quick thoughts...

Group A
Don't see any suprises here, Portugal and Spain are clearly stronger than Greece and Russia. Russia is looks weak in defense and I would look to play overs and against them in every game. Greece could steal a point from Portugal or Spain with their strict defensive strategy so be careful. I believe Greece has played 5-6 consecutive Under 2.5's.

Group Prediction
1. Spain
2. Portugal
3. Greece
4. Russia


Group B
France is legitimate fav here. England have serious defensive issues (including goalie) while I share ChrisCol prediction that Croatia could surprise. The Swiss are not dangerous and should not cause any upsets imo.

Group Prediction
1. France
2. Croatia
3. England
4. Switzerland


Group C
Italy are a very solid team and should qualify to the 2nd round without trouble. The remaining 3 teams (Sweden,Denmark,Bulgaria) are pretty close. Bulgaria should not be underestimated. Sweden and Denmark are both strong but I see this group as a crapshoot for 2nd place with tons of draws occuring creating tiebreaker chaos in the end.

Group Prediction
1. Italy
2. Sweden
3. Denmark
4. Bulgaria


Group D
Interesting group with 3 high profile teams. Germany is in a downtrend heading into the tournament especially up front where they have serious problems scoring. Czech R. have been playing outstanding team soccer over the past year and are serious contenders for the whole thing if they can bring that same level. Holland have tons of talent and are capable of blowing out teams but they are to inconsistent and cannot be trusted. Latvia will be happy keeping scorelines respectable.

Group Prediction
1. Holland
2. Czech
3. Germany
4. Latvia
 

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